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KIRIBATI STATEMENT ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2025_Final
KIRIBATI STATEMENT ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2025/2026BackgroundThe Kiribati Wet Season (Auu-Meang) runs from 1st November to 30th April, a period also known as the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season.During this season, Kiribati may ex…
KIRIBATI STATEMENT ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2025_Final
KIRIBATI STATEMENT ON TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON 2025/2026
Background
The Kiribati Wet Season (Auu-Meang) runs from 1st November to 30th April, a period also known as the Tropical Cyclone (TC) Season.
During this season, Kiribati may experience extreme weather events, including those linked to Tropical Disturbances or Tropical Cyclones (TCs).
Past records show that the risk of cyclone-related severe weather in Kiribati tends to be higher during El Niño and Neutral (warm) phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
Currently, ENSO is Neutral, with a possibility of a weak La Niña (cool phase) developing by end of this year and can only last until the first half of next year, 2026.
TCs are classified from Category 1 to 5, with Category 5 being the most intense. Cyclones rated Category 3 or higher are considered severe.
Tropical Cyclone Outlook from November 2025 to April 2026
Current and forecasted ENSO conditions are NOT FAVOURABLE for related Tropical Cyclone development in Kiribati.
For this season, Kiribati faces a LOW RISK of being directly affected by a Tropical Cyclone.
The outlook indicates 0 to 1 Tropical Cyclone may develop or pass near the Kiribati region
between November 2025 and April 2026.
Recommendations
Although, Kiribati is low risk from TC in this season, people are advised to always stay vigilant to minimize possible threats.
Potential impacts from any Tropical Cyclone or related weather systems may include storm surges, high swells that could lead to coastal inundation and erosion, strong winds and heavy rainfall.
The public is strongly advised to monitor daily weather updates issued by the Kiribati Meteorological Service (KMS) on radio, visit its Facebook page and website on www.met.gov.ki or call its toll free line on 1055.
Annex 1: Predicted Number and Risk Map of Tropical Cyclone for Nov-Apr 2025/2026.
Figure 1: Risk of TC over South Pacific from ESNZ for Nov to Apr 2025/26.
Figure 2: Outlook for TC over the South Pacific from ESNZ for Nov to Apr 2025/26.
Weather Forecast for the Kiribati Group and Banaba
Warning
Spring Tide Advisory:Tide predictions for 10th 11th and 12th for the month of September 2026 indicate sea levels of 2.80 meters and above.Possible impact: Inundation of low-lying coastal areas.Advice: Be cautious in coastal areas that may be affected by inundation.Strong wind Warning:A strong wind warning remains in force for the Kiribati group, mostly the northern and central group and Banaba.Possible impact: Loose items may blow off.Advice: Monitor the latest forecast.Heavy Rain warning:A heavy rain warning remains in force for the Kiribati group and Banaba, mostly the northern and central group and Banaba.Possible impact: Inundation of low-lying areas.Advice: Monitor the latest forecast.
Situation
Associated clouds and showers from a deep low-pressure system located north of the Northern Line Islands remains slow-moving over the Kiribati group and Banaba.
Kiribati Group and Banaba
Moderate to fresh westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots. Gusting up to 25 knots.
Rough seas.
| Forecast Area | Today | Tonight |
|---|---|---|
| Makin & Butaritari | Cloudy with occasional showers, heavy at times. | Occasional showers heavy at times. |
| Marakei, Abaiang, Tarawa, Maiana | Cloudy with light showers, heavy at times. | Light to moderate showers. |
| Kuria, Aranuka, Abemama | Occasional showers, heavy at times. | Cloudy with light showers heavy at times. |
| Nonouti, Tabiteuea, Beru, Nikunau | Partly cloudy with isolated light to moderate showers. | Partly cloudy with isolated light to moderate showers. |
| Onotoa, Tamana, Arorae | Partly cloudy with isolated brief showers. | Partly cloudy with isolated brief showers. |
| Banaba | Partly cloudy with isolated moderate showers. | Occasional showers heavy at times. |
Further outlook Wednesday 9th September
Cloudy with moderate showers.
Moderate to fresh westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots. Gusting up to 25 knots.
Rough seas.
Moon Phase
Three days before the new moon.
Tide Predictions
High and Low Tides
| Tide | Time | Height (m) |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 0901am | 0.96 m |
| High | 0308pm | 2.35 m |
| Low | 0900pm | 1.02 m |
