Kiribati Meteorological Service

Agrometeorological Bulletin

Issue 16 · 14 SEPTEMBER 2026

Observed conditions

Past climate

Status

Kiribati is still in its dry season, which usually starts from May and ends in October every year.
Rainfall observations were above normal for all stations except Kanton which is below normal for the month ending in August 2026. (Note: The normal baseline is based on the 1991–2020 climatology using the Tarawa dataset).
The Kiribati Climate Driver (ENSO) was in a La Nina phase from December 2025 to March 2026. Then, it returned to neutral phase in April 2026. However, in mid-June 2026 El Nino conditions was developed until date. During El Nino phase of ENSO, Kiribati typically experiences above- average weather and climate conditions.
Long term averages for the rainfall in dry season is lower compared to the wet season which has higher rainfall totals.
Table of the moon phases shows that the first quarter will be on the 19th of September 2026.

Rainfall observations chart from the bulletin — Rainfall observations

ENSO index chart from the bulletin — ENSO index

Dry and wet season rainfall chart from the bulletin — Dry and wet season rainfall

Moon phases chart from the bulletin — Moon phases

Seasonal outlook

Present climate

October and October to December 2026

Temperature and rainfall forecast

For the month of October and October to December 2026, lower heat energy is predicted across the Kiribati region, showing increased cloud cover.

Rainfall of 100-200 mm is expected at the Southern Line groups. The Southern Gilbert and some island in the Line group are forecasted to receive 200-250m rainfall. Higher rainfall amounts of 400–800mm is predicted over the Northern Gilbert and Line group for the month of October. The probability of these conditions occurring is 75%.

For October to December period, rainfall within the range of 1000-1200mm is expected across most of the Kiribati region.

October temperature anomaly map from the bulletin — October temperature anomaly

October–December temperature anomaly map from the bulletin — October–December temperature anomaly

October rainfall forecast map from the bulletin — October rainfall forecast

October–December rainfall forecast map from the bulletin — October–December rainfall forecast

Disclaimer

KMS DOES NOT GURANTEE THE ACCURACY OF THE ANALYSIS AND ACCEPTS NO LIABILITY FOR ANY LOSSES INCURRED THROUGH THE USE OF THIS SUMMARY INFORMATION.

E AKI KABAEAKI TE KMS N KOAUAN KE KAIRUAN KATAUTAU AIKAI AO TIAKI TABENA KAITARAN TAIA N KANGANGA MA KABUANIBWAI AIKA ANA KONA N REKE MAN KABONGANAN TE RONGORONGO AIO NGKAI AIKAI BON TI IBUKIN TE KAKATAURAOI.